The 2026-27 Budget: Department of Developmental Services

Mar 13, 2026 - The department stated that its budget projections for 2026 ‑27 do not incorporate any potential added costs due to the changes in H.R 1. Will the department be able to determine whether its costs increase in the future due to H.R. 1?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5157

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Analysis

Mar 2, 2026 - One possible reason for our higher estimate is that our model reflects not only disenrollment among current enrollees, but also reduced enrollment flows over time and a persistent risk of disenrollment among eligible individuals due to added administrative burden.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5146

The 2025-26 Budget: Understanding Recent Increases in the Medi-Cal Senior Caseload

Mar 6, 2025 - In the paragraphs that follow, we provide our analysis that results in ou r estimate of at least 165,000 seniors being added due to eligibility expansions since 2020. (As a consequence of this estimate, it follows naturally that we estimate up to 60,000  seniors being added due to the effects of continuous coverage, the unwinding, and unwinding flexibilities, for a total increase of 225,000 seniors due to policy changes.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5010

Considering Medi-Cal in the Midst of a Changing Fiscal and Policy Landscape

Oct 24, 2025 - …But Potentially With Added Complexity. Adding more flexibilities also could come with the potential downside of more complexity for beneficiaries and counties. For example, exempting high unemployment counties from work requirements could create more volatility.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5083

Building California’s Behavioral Health Infrastructure: Progress Update and Opportunities for the Proposition 1 Bond

Feb 5, 2025 - Strategies to do so have included expanding the behavioral health workforce; adding benefits and increasing rates in Medi ‑Cal; and increasing capacity through managed care plans, schools, and in other  settings.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4954

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Baseline Spending Drives Increases. The largest driver of growth ($12.8  billion) comes from baseline spending increases (before state and federal policy changes). Increases in enrollee utilization and provider rates cause most of this trend.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5092

The 2025-26 Budget: CalAIM Enhanced Care Management and Community Supports Implementation Update

Mar 6, 2025 - The difficulty MCPs have in adding ECM and Community Supports providers may be keeping utilization rates lower than expected. Systemic Constraints Limit Utilization. Lower ‑than ‑expected utilization of certain benefits may be driven more by systemic constraints across different regions of the state rather than a low demand for those benefits.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5003

The 2025-26 California Spending Plan: Health

Oct 16, 2025 - According to DHCS, managed care plans have increased rates for certain services (such as primary care) in the last few years. These rate increases reflect higher costs in the Medi-Cal program. Accordingly, the administration ’s Proposition  35 spending plan treats this cost growth as an augmentation in 2025 and 2026.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5075

Mental Health Services Act: Revenue Volatility and the Governor’s Proposal to Reduce Allowable County Reserves

Jul 13, 2023 - One way to measure the variability in a data series is average deviation (AD). AD summarizes —for a given time period —how many percentage points the data in a series deviate from the average growth rate.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4780

Enhancing Federal Financial Participation for Consumers Served by the Department of Developmental Services—An Interim Update

Apr 19, 2021 - All of the General Fund costs associated with these Medi-Cal benefits would be an added cost to the state since these consumers would be new to the Medi-Cal program. In our final report, we will provide an estimate of the fiscal implications to the state budget of increasing the Medi-Cal uptake of DDS consumers that accounts for these added costs outside of the DDS system.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4415