The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - On one hand, there is a clear strategic benefit to allowing the credit pool to increase beyond the baseline allocation: Changing macroeconomic conditions over the course of the business cycle means that there are years when businesses are more inclined to invest and expand operations than in other years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - During the phase ‑in period, the state also entered the dot ‑com recession. These two cost pressures absorbed the remaining flexibility in the state ’s UI tax system. As  shown in Figure  4 , the state began this period in Schedule C but quickly moved to Schedule F+, the highest tax schedule, where it has remained since.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

The 2025-26 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Oct 16, 2025 - The increase in construction costs stems mainly from site conditions, which were found to be more complex than initially estimated and require the use of specialized vehicles, structures, and equipment.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5081/

Local Sales Tax Rebates in 2023-24

Sep 16, 2025 - Economic Conditions in Rebate-Paying Jurisdictions Slightly Better Than Statewide Average. Next, we examine some economic and demographic features of two groups of jurisdictions: (1)  those whose 2023-24 rebate payments totaled $1 to $20 per resident, and (2)  those whose rebate payments totaled more than $20 per resident.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5074

The 2025-26 Budget: Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development

Mar 18, 2025 - We recently assessed the General Fund condition as roughly balanced in 2025-26, with significant annual operating deficits thereafter. Additional risks related to federal funding and fire recovery costs could worsen the budget condition in the coming months.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5018

Evaluation of a Tax Exemption for Zero-Emission Buses

Apr 15, 2024 - CARB Exempts Transit Agencies From ICT Requirements Under Some Conditions. Under the ICT, CARB will exempt a transit agency from the requirements described above under specified conditions outside the agency ’s control, including: The agency declares a financial emergency.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4890

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - In this context, the two main parts of the Arellano and Bonhomme (2017) model are (1)  a set of equations that predict the conditional quantiles of the wage distribution, and (2)  an equation that predicts whether each worker responds to the survey ’s wage questions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/4

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - Without major changes in policies or market conditions that reverse California ’s chronic undersupply of housing, raising the minimum wage would not make housing in these areas affordable for low-wage workers.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/3

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - The first section of the brief presents our analysis of the budget condition under these assumptions. The  second section provides our comments. Analysis Budget Problem $6   Billion Larger in 2023 ‑24 Under LAO Estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

Effect of Returning to Historical Estimated Tax Payment Schedule

Feb 27, 2023 - This change had the effect of accelerating tax collections from 2009 ‑10 into 2008 ‑09, thereby improving the 2008 ‑09 budget condition. As the state ’s fiscal situation continued to deteriorate in 2009, the 2009 ‑10 budget package again changed the quarterly estimated tax payment schedule to collect 70  percent in the first half of the fiscal year and 30  percent in the second, improving the 2009 ‑10 budget condition.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4722