The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - As a result, as Figure  2 shows, Medi ‑Cal comprises 19  percent of overall General Fund spending by the end of our outlook period —slightly lower than the 20  percent share in the 2025 ‑26 enacted  budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5092

Considering Medi-Cal in the Midst of a Changing Fiscal and Policy Landscape

Oct 24, 2025 - Based on July 2025 unemployment data, about 20 counties in California currently meet the criteria, and several more are close. We estimate that this additional exemption alone could exclude at least a few hundred thousand individuals.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5083

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - The reason for the reduction is the recent voter approval of Proposition  35 (2024), which requires the state to spend less MCO tax money on offsetting General Fund spending and more money on provider rate increases.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2026-27 Budget: Department of Developmental Services

Mar 13, 2026 - Under S B  3 , the statewide minimum wage will continue to increase by up to 3.5  percent each year, depending on inflation. In recent years, the cumulative cost of annual minimum wage increases under S B  3 have represented about 5  percent to 10  percent of General Fund spending on services purchased for DDS consumers.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5157

Mental Health Services Act: Revenue Volatility and the Governor’s Proposal to Reduce Allowable County Reserves

Jul 13, 2023 - Figure  5 shows the chances that reserves allowable under current law could cover revenue declines of up to 40  percent. Earlier, we suggested a target for allowable reserves to be almost certain to cover a 20  percent revenue decline and very likely to cover a 30  percent revenue decline.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4780

The 2025-26 Budget: Medi-Cal Pharmacy Spending

Apr 3, 2025 - In 2023 ‑24, we estimate these rebates comprised 3  percent of gross spending, up from as low as 1  percent in some years. This increase was expected following the switch to the Medi ‑Cal Rx system in 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5026

Enhancing Federal Financial Participation for Consumers Served by the Department of Developmental Services

Nov 9, 2021 - Moreover, some individuals and families uncomfortable with signing up for Medi ‑Cal may not be able to afford what would have been the federal portion of the cost of the RC ‑coordinated services. Consequently, this approach could be more punitive in nature than the three alternative approaches discussed below, given that a family would have to pay for or forgo services if they did not want to enroll the consumer in Medi ‑Cal.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4471

The 2021-22 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2021 - Reflecting very strong cash collections in recent months, the May Revision adjusts 2020 ‑21 revenues (and transfers) up by $26.8  billion to $182  billion. This represents a 27  percent increase over 2019 ‑20, the largest single year increase in over four decades.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4432

The 2025-26 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - This is because the measure requires the state to use more MCO tax money to increase Medi-Cal services, rather than to offset General Fund spending. The exact fiscal impact depends on how the state implements the measure ’s complex rules.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4941

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Analysis

Mar 2, 2026 - DHCS also states that complying with this federal request may qualify California for an up to three ‑year transition period to make the fee more proportionate. Federal Rules Continue to Emerge, Creating Some Uncertainty for Structuring Provider Taxes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5146