The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Meanwhile, revenue growth over the outlook window is just above 4   percent —lower than its historical average largely due to policy choices that end during the forecast window. Taken together, we view it as unlikely that revenue growth will be fast enough to catch up to ongoing spending.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - We define a delay as an expenditure reduction that occurs in the budget window (2022-23 through 2024-25), but has an associated expenditure increase in a future year of the multiyear window (2025-26 through 2027-28).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - Meanwhile, revenue growth over the outlook window is just above 4  percent —this is lower than its historical average largely due to policy choices, namely the limitations on deductions and credits that end during the forecast window.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

Five Guidelines for Using Revenue Forecasts [EconTax Blog]

Feb 20, 2025 - When DOF ’s forecast for the budget window is within $10 billion of ours at May Revision (or $15 billion at the January budget release), decision makers should tend to view it as reasonable. Only when our forecasts differ by more than this would we suggest decision makers consider raising questions about the reasonableness of the administration ’s forecast.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/822

Five Guidelines for Using Revenue Forecasts [EconTax Blog]

Feb 20, 2025 - When DOF ’s forecast for the budget window is within $10 billion of ours at May Revision (or $15 billion at the January budget release), decision makers should tend to view it as reasonable. Only when our forecasts differ by more than this would we suggest decision makers consider raising questions about the reasonableness of the administration ’s forecast.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/822

The 2025-26 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Our outlook includes a cost of between $2  billion to $3  billion in the budget window. Implementation of New Augmentations. Under current law, previously planned MCO tax-supported augmentations cannot go into effect if voters pass Proposition  35.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4941

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - Under our estimates, the state faces operating deficits throughout the multiyear window, meaning revenues would need to come in above our projections for the budget to be balanced. While the revenues required to balance the budget are optimistic, but plausible, in the budget window, they are improbable in the out ‑years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - These proposals generate a total of $2.2  billion General Fund savings within the budget window. Second, the Governor ’s budget includes new discretionary proposals that use budget capacity by increasing spending or reducing revenues.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2023 - We define a delay as an expenditure reduction that occurs in the budget window (2021 ‑22 through 2023 ‑24), but has an associated expenditure increase in a future year of the multiyear window (2024 ‑25 through 2026 ‑27).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4662

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - We define a delay as an expenditure reduction that occurs in the budget window (2022 ‑23 through 2024 ‑25), but has an associated expenditure increase in a future year of the multiyear window (2025 ‑26 through 2027 ‑28).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825