The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - As such, the Legislature must determine how to focus its efforts so as to provide information that would be most helpful in making future budget decisions. This section offers some questions to determine how to focus those efforts.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - This share is determined by a complex set of formulas that can lower excess capital gains by anywhere from 0 percent to 100 percent, although reductions around 30 percent have been the most common to date.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the State Appropriations Limit Proposal

Feb 4, 2022 - In order to reduce tax revenues for tax year 2021, the Legislature most likely would need to act very soon, but the state also could lower revenues for 2022 in the coming months. There are many options for tax reductions, including: broad ‑based rebates, targeted rebates, and expansions of tax credits and programs like the Earned Income Tax Credit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4515

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - Second, even if the Legislature most often adopts the administration ’s revenue estimates in the budget, the alternative LAO numbers facilitate valuable deliberations. The administration ’s revenue estimates flow from the specific economic scenario that it deems most likely to unfold.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Yet this pay bounce does not appear to be connected to the hourly wages and salaries that most workers receive. Estimates suggest pay from these traditional forms grew at an annualized rate of only a few percentage points in the first quarter.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - Before accounting for discretionary choices, the budget position under the administration ’s estimates is similar to what it was under our November estimates. That is, both of our offices have assessed that the budget is roughly balanced.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - This is most likely to be the case in years when CalSTRS experiences a significant actuarial loss from lower ‑than ‑assumed investment returns. …And Other Years When CalSTRS Sets State Rate Higher Than What Otherwise Would Be Actuarially Required.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - While historically the state mostly has enacted SFEU balances between $1  billion and $4  billion, the Legislature can choose to set the balance at any level above zero. Figure 2
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - Second, fiscal policy is most likely to be inflationary when governments run budget deficits. When deficits occur, the government is spending more into the economy than it is taking out via taxation.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Suspension Proposal

Jan 29, 2021 - If the suspensions went into effect, most of these payment increases would cease. Proposition  56 would instead cover cost growth in Medi ‑Cal, providing General Fund savings. (Under current law, these payment increases are subject to suspension on July 1, 2021 r ather than December 31, 2021.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4328