The 2026-27 Budget: Department of Developmental Services

Mar 13, 2026 - The department stated that its budget projections for 2026 ‑27 do not incorporate any potential added costs due to the changes in H.R 1. Will the department be able to determine whether its costs increase in the future due to H.R. 1?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5157

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Analysis

Mar 2, 2026 - One possible reason for our higher estimate is that our model reflects not only disenrollment among current enrollees, but also reduced enrollment flows over time and a persistent risk of disenrollment among eligible individuals due to added administrative burden.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5146

Considering Medi-Cal in the Midst of a Changing Fiscal and Policy Landscape

Oct 24, 2025 - …But Potentially With Added Complexity. Adding more flexibilities also could come with the potential downside of more complexity for beneficiaries and counties. For example, exempting high unemployment counties from work requirements could create more volatility.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5083

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Were California to qualify, the two ‑year extension could shift the associated savings from disenrollments over a longer period of time. How Large of an Effect Will State and Federal Policy Changes Have?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5092

The 2025-26 Budget: CalAIM Enhanced Care Management and Community Supports Implementation Update

Mar 6, 2025 - The difficulty MCPs have in adding ECM and Community Supports providers may be keeping utilization rates lower than expected. Systemic Constraints Limit Utilization. Lower ‑than ‑expected utilization of certain benefits may be driven more by systemic constraints across different regions of the state rather than a low demand for those benefits.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5003

The 2025-26 Budget: Understanding Recent Increases in the Medi-Cal Senior Caseload

Mar 6, 2025 - In the paragraphs that follow, we provide our analysis that results in ou r estimate of at least 165,000 seniors being added due to eligibility expansions since 2020. (As a consequence of this estimate, it follows naturally that we estimate up to 60,000  seniors being added due to the effects of continuous coverage, the unwinding, and unwinding flexibilities, for a total increase of 225,000 seniors due to policy changes.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5010

Building California’s Behavioral Health Infrastructure: Progress Update and Opportunities for the Proposition 1 Bond

Feb 5, 2025 - Strategies to do so have included expanding the behavioral health workforce; adding benefits and increasing rates in Medi ‑Cal; and increasing capacity through managed care plans, schools, and in other  settings.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4954

The 2023-24 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 16, 2022 - In addition, many of these policy changes are interrelated, further adding to the uncertainty. Inflation and Its Impacts on Medi ‑Cal Spending Are Uncertain. Inflation in the overall state economy has been considerably higher over the last several months than average historical levels.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4649

Mental Health Services Act: Revenue Volatility and the Governor’s Proposal to Reduce Allowable County Reserves

Jul 13, 2023 - One way to measure the variability in a data series is average deviation (AD). AD summarizes —for a given time period —how many percentage points the data in a series deviate from the average growth rate.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4780

The 2025-26 Budget: MCO Tax and Proposition 35

Feb 26, 2025 - Pursuant to last year ’s trigger language, the Governor ’s budget assumes the remaining augmentations under the state ’s previous spending plan (those scheduled to begin in 2025 and 2026) are no longer in effect.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4992