The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Analysis

Mar 2, 2026 - One possible reason for our higher estimate is that our model reflects not only disenrollment among current enrollees, but also reduced enrollment flows over time and a persistent risk of disenrollment among eligible individuals due to added administrative burden.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5146

Considering Medi-Cal in the Midst of a Changing Fiscal and Policy Landscape

Oct 24, 2025 - …But Potentially With Added Complexity. Adding more flexibilities also could come with the potential downside of more complexity for beneficiaries and counties. For example, exempting high unemployment counties from work requirements could create more volatility.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5083

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Data on Medi ‑Cal members with UIS are currently too limited to estimate the potential fiscal effects of this policy. New Home Equity Limit. California asset limit policies historically disregarded someone ’s primary residence and vehicle from the calculation.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5092

Mental Health Services Act: Revenue Volatility and the Governor’s Proposal to Reduce Allowable County Reserves

Jul 13, 2023 - One way to measure the variability in a data series is average deviation (AD). AD summarizes —for a given time period —how many percentage points the data in a series deviate from the average growth rate.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4780

The 2026-27 Budget: Department of Developmental Services

Mar 13, 2026 - DDS is eligible to receive this support because much of the project involves Medicaid ‑funded services. This current round of enhanced federal funding is available to the department from June 2025 through September 2026.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5157

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - We suggest the Legislature take heed of these risks and avoid putting too much stock in the recent revenue rebound until it is accompanied by clear improvements in California ’s broader economy. Governor ’s Use of Reserves Remains Reasonable.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

Building California’s Behavioral Health Infrastructure: Progress Update and Opportunities for the Proposition 1 Bond

Feb 5, 2025 - Building California’s Behavioral Health Infrastructure: Progress Update and Opportunities for the Proposition 1 Bond Executive Summary Program Is Building Wide Variety of Much Needed Behavioral Health Infrastructure.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4954

The 2025-26 Budget: CalAIM Enhanced Care Management and Community Supports Implementation Update

Mar 6, 2025 - The difficulty MCPs have in adding ECM and Community Supports providers may be keeping utilization rates lower than expected. Systemic Constraints Limit Utilization. Lower ‑than ‑expected utilization of certain benefits may be driven more by systemic constraints across different regions of the state rather than a low demand for those benefits.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5003

The 2025-26 Budget: Understanding Recent Increases in the Medi-Cal Senior Caseload

Mar 6, 2025 - In the paragraphs that follow, we provide our analysis that results in ou r estimate of at least 165,000 seniors being added due to eligibility expansions since 2020. (As a consequence of this estimate, it follows naturally that we estimate up to 60,000  seniors being added due to the effects of continuous coverage, the unwinding, and unwinding flexibilities, for a total increase of 225,000 seniors due to policy changes.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5010

Enhancing Federal Financial Participation for Consumers Served by the Department of Developmental Services

Nov 9, 2021 - Both DDS and RCs indicate that most adults who are eligible for Medi ‑Cal are already enrolled, meaning that this group likely includes adults who are not eligible for some reason, for example, being an undocumented immigrant or having income that is too high.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4471