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Fiscal Outlook: Developmental Services

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November 15, 2017 - This web post provides information about the fiscal outlook for the Department of Developmental Services from 2017-18 through 2021-22. It also considers the fiscal impact of the closure of state-run Developmental Centers, which will occur over the outlook period.

This is part of a collection of material for The 2018-19 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook. See a complete list of this year's fiscal outlook material on our fiscal outlook budget page.

Fiscal Outlook: Medi-Cal

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November 15, 2017 - This online post discusses the major factors that we project will impact General Fund spending in Medi-Cal from 2017-18 to 2021-22.

This is part of a collection of material for The 2018-19 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook. See a complete list of this year's fiscal outlook material on our fiscal outlook budget page.

State Fiscal Effects of California’s Minimum Wage

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November 15, 2017 - This post discusses the fiscal effects of California's minimum wage on the General Fund.

This is part of a collection of material for The 2018-19 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook. See a complete list of this year's fiscal outlook material on our fiscal outlook budget page.

Debt Service on Infrastructure Bonds

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November 15, 2017 - Debt service is a significant General Fund expenditure. In this post, we discuss how we estimate the state’s debt burden will change over the forecast period.

This is part of a collection of material for The 2018-19 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook. See a complete list of this year's fiscal outlook material on our fiscal outlook budget page.

Fiscal Outlook: In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS)

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November 15, 2017 - In this fiscal outlook post, we discuss our near- and long-term costs projections for the In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS) Program and significant cost drivers and savings.

This is part of a collection of material for The 2018-19 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook. See a complete list of this year's fiscal outlook material on our fiscal outlook budget page.

2016 Data on Crime in California

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October 17, 2017 - Since 1930, the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program has collected data on crimes reported to law enforcement agencies throughout the United States. Recently, the FBI released data on crime in 2016. These data likely underestimate the total number of crimes that have actually occurred. This is because they do not include unreported crime, and some reported crimes—including all drug crime—are excluded. Despite these limitations, the UCR data provide useful metrics for tracking changes in crime rates over time. In this report, we present crime trends in California and show how California compares to nationwide trends.

Update on School District Retiree Health Benefits

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September 25, 2017 - School districts face growing cost pressure related to the health benefits they provide for their retired employees. The first section of this post explains how districts structure their retiree health benefits, and the second section analyzes historical spending levels and future liabilities. We find that the unfunded liability—the total future cost of providing the retiree health benefits that employees have already earned, after subtracting the funds already set aside to cover those benefits—is about $24 billion across all districts. Some districts have taken steps to reduce their future costs, such as requiring employees to work longer before qualifying for these benefits. A few districts also are beginning to set aside additional funds now to cover future retiree health benefits, a practice that could yield significant long-term savings.

July 2017 Update: Los Angeles’ Bid for the Olympics and Paralympics

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July 6, 2017 - Los Angeles' prospects for hosting an Olympic and Paralympic Games are strong, according to widespread reports. The California Legislature has provided a $250 million backup guarantee for shortfalls of the 2024 Games, but Los Angeles' bid for 2024 is fairly low risk and it is hoped that no state guarantee funds will ever have to be paid out. As the possible due date for the Governor's execution of a guarantee contract with Games organizers approaches, our office continues to recommend a strong legislative oversight role to help Games organizers deliver a low-cost and successful event. This update focuses on (1) yesterday's report from a key Olympic commission evaluating the 2024 bids of Los Angeles and Paris and (2) the widely reported possibility that Los Angeles or Paris will be offered the chance to host the Games in 2028 instead of 2024.

How Will Aging Baby Boomers Affect Future Property Tax Revenues?

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June 20, 2017 - In the coming years, more and more aging homeowners likely will look to sell their homes. This surge in sales should boost local government property tax collections. These potential property tax gains are likely to be offset by an increase in the transfer of homes from parents to children which, unlike most home sales, does not trigger higher tax payments.

LAO Multiyear State Budget Outlook

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May 19, 2017 - This post presents our multiyear outlook for the condition of the state budget through 2020-21 based on current federal and state law and policies, as modified by the Governor’s May Revision proposals. This outlook assumes the passage of the Governor’s proposals, but uses our office’s own estimates of future costs of state programs, along with our own estimates of revenues.

The 2017-18 Budget: Overview of the Governor's May Revision Medi-Cal Budget Proposal

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May 17, 2017 - In this Budget and Policy Post, we provide an overview of several of the key factors driving the changes in estimated and proposed Medi-Cal spending in 2016-17 and 2017-18; our evaluation of the Governor’s updated caseload estimates; and an update on several key proposals from the January budget, some of which have been modified at May Revision. During continuing budget deliberations, we recommend that the Legislature ask for clarity from the Department of Health Care Services on how the Major Risk Medical Insurance Program will be funded in the future under the Governor’s proposal if Health Care Services Plans and Penalties Fund revenues are insufficient to cover the costs of the program. We also recommend that the Legislature, should it approve the Governor’s plan to cancel the planned transition of Newly Qualified Immigrants from Medi-Cal to Covered California, consider trailer bill language that repeals existing state statutory language that calls for the transition. Finally, we recommended a downward technical adjustment of $62 million General Fund to the 2017-18 May Medi-Cal Estimate.

The 2017-18 Budget: The Governor's May Revision Cannabis-Related Proposals

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May 16, 2017 -

In this analysis, we discuss the Governor’s cannabis-related May Revision proposals for seven state departments. Based on our initial review of these proposals, we provide (1) overarching comments and (2) recommendations on each department’s specific proposal.

LAO Bottom Line. The Governor’s May Revision proposes 201 positions and $43.2 million in 2017‑18 from various funds to conduct cannabis regulation-related activities. These resources are provided across seven state departments. Based on our initial review, we recommend making key policy choices regarding how the cannabis industry will be regulated before finalizing budget decisions, as well as limiting the amount of out-year funding provided to departments given the high level of uncertainty regarding future workloads. Accordingly, we also provide recommendations on each department’s specific proposal.

The 2017-18 Budget: The Governor's May Revision In-Home Supportive Services Cost-Sharing Proposal

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May 16, 2017 - Rather than return to the original 1991 realignment cost-sharing ratios for In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS) as initiated by the Governor in January (described in our report: The Coordinated Care Initiative: A Critical Juncture), the administration proposes establishing a new Maintenance of Effort (MOE) for counties’ share of IHSS cost. The new MOE would include both services and administration using 2017-18 costs. The new MOE would significantly increase costs to counties in 2017-18 relative to 2016-17. While the MOE shifts significant costs to counties, the proposal provides state General Fund support and additional realignment revenue to partially offset this increase. In this analysis, we lay out the various components of this complex proposal. We also raise key questions for Legislative consideration and provide our recommendation for how to move forward.

The 2017-18 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

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May 13, 2017 - On May 11, 2017 the Governor presented his 2017-18 May Revision budget proposal to the Legislature. We are releasing our assessment of the May Revision in various online products. This post describes the major features of the Governor’s May Revision and our office’s initial comments on it. Other posts in this series discuss our office’s independent assessments of the state’s economy, revenues, and spending proposals in the May Revision.

Federal Funding for Natural Resources and Environmental Protection

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May 10, 2017 - In this post, we provide more detail on federal funding for the state’s natural resources and environmental protection programs, with a focus on the five state departments that receive the most federal funds last year.