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Issues That Could Impact Californians' Health Care Coverage in 2023 and Beyond

December 16, 2022 - This brief looks at health care coverage in California; provides background on the drivers of the significant decline in the percentage of Californians without health care coverage over the last ten years; and discusses various issues that could impact the number of Californians with coverage, and how the type of coverage they have may change, in calendar year 2023 and beyond.

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Redesigning California's Adult Education Funding Model

December 13, 2022 - In this brief, we provide background on adult education funding, assess the current funding model, and offer recommendations to improve it.

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The 2023-24 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

November 16, 2022 - This brief provides our annual fiscal outlook for General Fund spending in Medi-Cal. It summarizes our projections, describes the major factors driving our projections, and highlights several uncertainties.

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The 2023-24 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

November 16, 2022 - Each year, the state calculates a “minimum guarantee” for school and community college funding based upon a set of formulas established by Proposition 98 (1988). Based upon recent signs of weakness in the economy, we estimate the guarantee in 2023‑24 is $2.2 billion (2 percent) below the 2022‑23 enacted budget level. Despite this drop, $7.6 billion would be available to provide increases for school and community college programs. In 2023‑24, the available funding could cover a cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) of up to 8.38 percent, which is slightly below our estimate of the statutory rate (8.73 percent). Over the next several years, growth in the guarantee and required reserve withdrawals would be just enough to cover the statutory COLA. Given this relatively precarious balance, we outline a few ways the Legislature could create a larger cushion to protect against revenue declines in the future.

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The 2023-24 Budget: Considering Inflation's Effects on State Programs

November 16, 2022 - This brief takes a case study approach to examine how elevated inflation has already impacted—and could continue to impact—state spending programs.

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Living Under Smoky Skies—Understanding the Challenges Posed by Wildfire Smoke in California

November 14, 2022 - In this report, we (1) summarize trends in wildfires and associated smoke; (2) review research on the health and other effects of wildfire smoke, including on vulnerable groups; (3) discuss local, state, and federal roles and responsibilities related to smoke, as well as actions that the state currently is undertaking to address it; and (4) provide some guidance to the Legislature as it formulates its approach to addressing smoke in the coming years.

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Assessing the Provision of Criminal Indigent Defense

September 22, 2022 - This report provides background on the provision of indigent defense in California, discusses existing indigent defense service levels, and makes recommendations to improve the state's oversight of indigent defense.

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Improving California’s Unemployment Insurance Program

August 8, 2022 - California's Unemployment Insurance (UI) program provides wage replacement to unemployed workers. The program has faltered during recent downturns, causing hardship for workers and their families, holding back the state's economic recovery, and spurring frustration among Californians with their government. Recent failures trace back to the UI program's basic design, which results in more emphasis being placed on limiting fraud and business costs than making sure eligible workers get benefits quickly and easily. Although this emphasis is not new, the pandemic has highlighted the need to rebalance the UI program. We recommend about a dozen targeted changes to state practices to place a greater priority on getting payments to eligible unemployed workers.

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The 2022-23 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2022 - This brief presents our office’s independent assessment of the condition of the state General Fund budget through 2025-26 under our forecast of revenues and spending, assuming the Governor’s May Revision policies were adopted.

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The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 16, 2022 - On May 13, 2022, Governor Newsom presented a revised state budget proposal to the Legislature. (This annual proposed revised budget is called the “May Revision.”) In this brief, we provide a summary of the Governor's revised budget, focusing on the overall condition and structure of the state General Fund—the budget's main operating account. In the coming days, we will analyze the plan in more detail and provide additional comments in hearing testimony and online. The information presented in this brief is based on our best understanding of the administration's proposals as of 11:00 AM, May 14, 2022. In many areas of the budget, this understanding will continue to evolve as we receive more information. We only plan to update this brief for very significant changes (that is, those greater than $500 million).

Update (5/20/22): Updated to reflect information about state appropriations limit (SAL) excluded spending and other budget proposals.

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The 2022-23 Budget: Student Housing

April 8, 2022 - This brief analyzes the Governor’s proposed first-round awards for the Higher Education Student Housing Grant Program.

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The 2022-23 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Implications

March 30, 2022 - This brief estimates the condition of the budget over the multiyear taking state appropriations limit requirements into consideration.

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The 2022-23 Budget: Analysis of the Governor’s Major Behavioral Health Proposals

March 3, 2022 - This brief analyzes the Governor’s three major behavioral health budget proposals. We include analyses of the Governor’s proposals to (1) provide funding for behavioral health bridge housing, (2) provide funding to implement certain solutions developed by the felony incompetent to stand trial solutions workgroup, and (3) add mobile crisis intervention services as a new Medi-Cal benefit.

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The 2022-23 Budget: Zero-Emission Vehicle Package

February 23, 2022 - This brief provides our assessment and recommendations on the Governor's proposed 2022-23 zero-emission vehicle package.

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The 2022-23 Budget: Health Care Access and Affordability

February 23, 2022 - This brief focuses on access to health insurance coverage and the affordability of health care costs. We (1) assess various Governor’s proposals intended to improve health care access and/or affordability—including expanding Medi-Cal eligibility to undocumented residents between ages 26, reducing Medi-Cal premiums to zero cost, establishing the Office of Health Care Affordability, and reducing the cost of insulin through a state partnership; (2) discuss options to improve affordability of health plans purchased through Covered California; and (3) highlight some key access and affordability challenges that remain to address.

Correction (2/24/22): Figure 2 - Number of undocumented residents has been corrected.