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Monthly Jobs Report September 23, 2024
Preliminary reports suggest the state added 6,800 jobs in August. The state's unemployment rate went up from 5.2 percent to 5.3 percent after remaining unchanged for three months.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: August 2024 September 17, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.9 percent over the last 3 months and 2.1 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.
Updated "Big Three" Revenue Outlook August 20, 2024
Updated Forecast In Line With Budget Assumptions. Our updated forecast is basically unchanged from last month and remains in line with Budget Act revenue assumptions. That being said, we are only two months into the new fiscal year and it is virtually certain the revenue outlook will change in the coming months. Ultimately, it would not be surprising if revenues ended up $20 billion higher or lower than our estimate for 2024-25 and $35 billion higher or lower for 2025-26.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: July 2024 August 16, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 1 percent over the last 3 months and 2.7 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.
California Housing Affordability Tracker (2nd Quarter 2024) August 6, 2024
Our post provides an updated snapshot of housing affordability in California. Over the last few years, we have seen a rapid increase in California housing costs, led by the dramatic increase in the costs of purchasing a home. Monthly costs for a newly purchased home are about $2,500 higher than they were just a few years ago. Annual income needed to qualify for a typical home is about $235,000—over 2 times higher than median household income (about $85,000). Further, the annual income needed to qualify for a more affordable "bottom-tier" home is over 50 percent higher than the median income.
Inflation Tracker May 17, 2024
April data suggests a modest reversal of the recent uptrend in inflation. However, inflation remains above the pre-pandemic norm. Prices in California largely have tracked with this national trend.
Did California Enter a Recession Last Fall? October 3, 2023
While recessions are not formally defined for state economies, economic data for the fourth quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023 appear consistent with California experiencing a mild recession. The apparent start of a recession in California last fall helps explain why the state faced a revenue shortfall in its most recent budget. How much the economy will continue to dampen the state's fiscal picture moving forward is unclear. However, the threat that the recent slowdown could persist will be a significant risk for the foreseeable future.