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Monthly Jobs Report August 23, 2024
Preliminary reports suggest the state added 21,100 jobs in July. The state's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.2 percent. For much of 2022 and 2023, the monthly jobs report overestimated statewide job growth. Earlier this week, however, incoming data from federal officials suggest that the monthly jobs report may now be tracking actual job growth more closely.
Updated "Big Three" Revenue Outlook August 20, 2024
Updated Forecast In Line With Budget Assumptions. Our updated forecast is basically equivalent to Budget Act revenue assumptions. That being said, we are only one month into the new fiscal year and it is virtually certain the revenue outlook will change in the coming months. Ultimately, it would not be surprising if revenues ended up $20 billion higher or lower than our estimate for 2024-25 and $35 billion higher or lower for 2025-26.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: July 2024 August 16, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 1 percent over the last 3 months and 2.7 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.
California Housing Affordability Tracker (2nd Quarter 2024) August 6, 2024
Our post provides an updated snapshot of housing affordability in California. Over the last few years, we have seen a rapid increase in California housing costs, led by the dramatic increase in the costs of purchasing a home. Monthly costs for a newly purchased home are about $2,500 higher than they were just a few years ago. Annual income needed to qualify for a typical home is about $235,000—over 2 times higher than median household income (about $85,000). Further, the annual income needed to qualify for a more affordable "bottom-tier" home is over 50 percent higher than the median income.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: June 2024 July 16, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.1 percent over the last 3 months and 2.3 percent over the last 12 months. Over both periods, sales have grown more slowly than inflation.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: May 2024 June 18, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.4 percent over the last 3 months and 2.3 percent over the last 12 months. Over both periods, sales have grown more slowly than inflation.
Newest Early Jobs Revision Shows No Net Job Growth During 2023 June 17, 2024
A newly released "early benchmark" of the official state jobs figures shows that payroll jobs declined by 32,000 from September 2023 through December 2023, whereas the official state tally showed growth of 117,000 jobs over that period. With the fourth quarter early revision, calendar year 2023 shows essentially no net job gains.
Inflation Tracker May 17, 2024
April data suggests a modest reversal of the recent uptrend in inflation. However, inflation remains above the pre-pandemic norm. Prices in California largely have tracked with this national trend.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: March 2024 April 15, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.8 percent over the last 3 months and 4 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 12 months, but not over the last 3 months.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: February 2024 March 14, 2024
U.S. retail sales have dropped 0.4 percent over the last 3 months and grown 1.5 percent over the last 12 months. The 12-month growth rate was below the rate of inflation.
Annual Revision Shows State Added Few Jobs Last Year March 13, 2024
Each year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revises the state's jobs number to match actual payroll records from businesses. The latest revision lowered its count of California jobs by 1.5 percent. The corrected data show that the state added just 50,000 jobs between September 2022 and September 2023, while preliminary monthly reports had showed the labor market growing by more than 300,000 jobs.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: January 2024 February 15, 2024
U.S. retail sales have dropped 0.5 percent over the last 3 months and grown 0.6 percent over the last 12 months. The 12-month growth rate was well below the rate of inflation.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: December 2023 January 17, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.7 percent over the last 3 months and 5.6 percent over the last 12 months. Both of these growth rates outpaced inflation.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: November 2023 December 14, 2023
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.9 percent over the last 3 months and 4.1 percent over the last 12 months. Both of these growth rates outpaced inflation.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: October 2023 November 15, 2023
U.S. retail sales have grown 1.5 percent over the last 3 months and 2.5 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.