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U.S. Retail Sales Update: May 2024 June 18, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.4 percent over the last 3 months and 2.3 percent over the last 12 months. Over both periods, sales have grown more slowly than inflation.
Newest Early Jobs Revision Shows No Net Job Growth During 2023 June 17, 2024
A newly released "early benchmark" of the official state jobs figures shows that payroll jobs declined by 32,000 from September 2023 through December 2023, whereas the official state tally showed growth of 117,000 jobs over that period. With the fourth quarter early revision, calendar year 2023 shows essentially no net job gains.
Monthly Jobs Report May 21, 2024
Preliminary reports suggest the state added 43,000 jobs in May. We interpret these figures with caution because recent reports have overstated the strength of the state's labor market in a few ways. First, recent reports have routinely overestimated job growth. Over the past 15 months, the preliminary report has been revised down by an average of 30,000 jobs each month. Secondly, the state's private-sector job market has fared notably worse than the topline monthly figures suggest, which have been bouyed by continued hiring in the public sector and publicly supported sectors. Beginning this month, we will report a hybrid real-time measure of the labor market (an average of the two main jobs surveys) that has more closely tracked actual job growth over the past year.
Inflation Tracker May 17, 2024
April data suggests a modest reversal of the recent uptrend in inflation. However, inflation remains above the pre-pandemic norm. Prices in California largely have tracked with this national trend.
Updated "Big Three" Revenue Outlook May 2, 2024
Revenues Likely to Fall Below Governor’s Budget Assumptions. Our forecast continues to suggest there is significant downside risk to state revenues relative to the Governor’s Budget. Specifically, our forecast is $19 billion below the Governor’s Budget across the 2022-23 to 2024-25 budget window. That being said, there is still significant uncertainty about how much revenue the state ultimately will collect. It is entirely possible that revenues could end up $8 billion higher or lower than our estimate for 2023-24 and $20 billion higher or lower for 2024-25.
California Housing Affordability Tracker (April 2024) April 30, 2024
Our post provides an updated snapshot of housing affordability in California. Over the last few years, we have seen a rapid increase in California housing costs, led by the dramatic increase in the costs of purchasing a home. Monthly costs for a newly purchased home are about $2,500 higher than they were just a few years ago. Annual income needed to qualify for a typical home is about $235,000—over 2 times higher than median household income (about $85,000). Further, the annual income needed to qualify for a more affordable "bottom-tier" home is over 50 percent higher than the median income.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: March 2024 April 15, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.8 percent over the last 3 months and 4 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 12 months, but not over the last 3 months.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: February 2024 March 14, 2024
U.S. retail sales have dropped 0.4 percent over the last 3 months and grown 1.5 percent over the last 12 months. The 12-month growth rate was below the rate of inflation.
Annual Revision Shows State Added Few Jobs Last Year March 13, 2024
Each year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revises the state's jobs number to match actual payroll records from businesses. The latest revision lowered its count of California jobs by 1.5 percent. The corrected data show that the state added just 50,000 jobs between September 2022 and September 2023, while preliminary monthly reports had showed the labor market growing by more than 300,000 jobs.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: January 2024 February 15, 2024
U.S. retail sales have dropped 0.5 percent over the last 3 months and grown 0.6 percent over the last 12 months. The 12-month growth rate was well below the rate of inflation.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: December 2023 January 17, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.7 percent over the last 3 months and 5.6 percent over the last 12 months. Both of these growth rates outpaced inflation.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: November 2023 December 14, 2023
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.9 percent over the last 3 months and 4.1 percent over the last 12 months. Both of these growth rates outpaced inflation.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: October 2023 November 15, 2023
U.S. retail sales have grown 1.5 percent over the last 3 months and 2.5 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: September 2023 October 17, 2023
U.S. retail sales have grown 2.1 percent over the last 3 months and 3.8 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has well outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.
Uptick in Unemployment Rate Triggered a Recession Indicator October 3, 2023
The recent uptick in the unemployment rate, from 3.8 percent to 4.6 percent, has triggered a state version of the "Sahm Rule," a real-time indicator of the start of an economic downturn.