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Monthly Jobs Report April 21, 2025
California's traditional jobs report suggests the state shed 12k jobs in March, and the prior month's report was revised down from -7k to -22k jobs. The state's traditional jobs report has shown a net job decline of 55k jobs over the past three months. In contrast, employment numbers from a secondary source, a household survey, have been somewhat more stable. Our hybrid measure that incorporates the household survey and has more closely tracked final jobs data suggests the state has lost 6k jobs over this period.
California Housing Affordability Tracker (1st Quarter 2025) April 21, 2025
Our post provides an updated snapshot of housing affordability in California. Over the last few years, we have seen a rapid increase in California housing costs, led by the dramatic increase in the costs of purchasing a home. Monthly costs for a newly purchased home are about $2,600 higher than they were just a few years ago, driven both by increases in home prices between 2020 and 2022 and an increase in mortgage rates since 2022.
The rapid increase in mortgage rates in 2022 has also left most existing homeowners "locked-in" to mortgages with rates significantly lower than currently available. More than 80 percent of California homeowners have mortgage rates under 5 percent, compared to current rates of about 7 percent. These homeowners face a significant additional financial cost to moving, further limiting the number of homes available for sale.
Inflation Tracker April 21, 2025
March data for the US show annual inflation was similar to pre-pandemic averages. This follows higher inflation readings in January and February, especially in California. Between December 2024 and February 2025, consumer prices grew at an annualized rate of 5.1% in California and 4.2% in the US. Recent surveys suggest that consumers expect significantly higher inflation over the next few years.
California New Car Registrations: February 2025 April 8, 2025
Starting with this post, we plan to publish monthly updates on new car registrations in California, which can be a useful, timely economic indicator. From December 2024 to February 2025, seasonally adjusted new car registrations declined by 8 percent. December registrations, however, had been the highest since mid-2022. As a result, February registrations still were around the average level over the last couple of years.
Annual Revision to Monthly Jobs Survey Shows Far Fewer Job Gains in 2024 March 21, 2025
Each year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revises the state's jobs numbers to match actual payroll records from businesses. The latest revisions updates the survey data through September 2024 and lowered California job gains from 260k to 60k over the year. The corrected data show the state's labor market grew just 0.3 percent between September 2023 and September 2024, while the preliminary monthly reports had showed the labor market roughly in line with the rest of the country (about 1.5 percent) over that period.
Updated "Big Three" Revenue Outlook February 20, 2025
Upside to Governor's Budget Revenues. Driven by the stock market, recent income tax collections have been decidedly strong. Reflecting this trend, our revenue outlook continues to improve and now suggests there is upside potential relative to the revenues assumed in the Governor’s Budget. Whether or not the stock market surge underpinning these revenue gains is sustainable is impossible to say, but several hallmarks of prior unsustainable stock market booms appear present today.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: October 2024 November 15, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 1.1 percent over the last 3 months and 2.8 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation substantially over the last 3 months, but only slightly over the last 12 months.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: September 2024 October 17, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 1.7 percent over the last 3 months and also 1.7 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: August 2024 September 17, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.9 percent over the last 3 months and 2.1 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: July 2024 August 16, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 1 percent over the last 3 months and 2.7 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: June 2024 July 16, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.1 percent over the last 3 months and 2.3 percent over the last 12 months. Over both periods, sales have grown more slowly than inflation.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: May 2024 June 18, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.4 percent over the last 3 months and 2.3 percent over the last 12 months. Over both periods, sales have grown more slowly than inflation.
Newest Early Jobs Revision Shows No Net Job Growth During 2023 June 17, 2024
A newly released "early benchmark" of the official state jobs figures shows that payroll jobs declined by 32,000 from September 2023 through December 2023, whereas the official state tally showed growth of 117,000 jobs over that period. With the fourth quarter early revision, calendar year 2023 shows essentially no net job gains.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: March 2024 April 15, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.8 percent over the last 3 months and 4 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 12 months, but not over the last 3 months.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: February 2024 March 14, 2024
U.S. retail sales have dropped 0.4 percent over the last 3 months and grown 1.5 percent over the last 12 months. The 12-month growth rate was below the rate of inflation.