September 2021 Jobs Report October 22, 2021

California employers added an estimated net 47,400 jobs in September, the smallest monthly gain since January.


2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: October 2021 October 22, 2021

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the budget act assumption of $170 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars. 


Home Prices Update: September 2021 October 20, 2021

Californa home prices grew by 1.37 percent in September, the lowest figure since March but still high by historical standards.


U.S. Retail Sales Update: September 2021 October 15, 2021

U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 0.7 percent from August to September. Retail sales remain at the elevated level that has persisted following dramatic growth in January and March.


California New Business Creation: September 2021 October 14, 2021

Californians continue to form new businesses at a rate well above the recent average.


Building Permits Update: August 2021 October 6, 2021

California builders recorded 9,285 housing permits in August, in line with the recent average for the month.


Income Tax Withholding Tracker: September 1 - September 24 September 24, 2021

The California income tax withholding surge continues, as September collections to date are 23.5 percent above last September.


Home Sales Update: August 2021 September 24, 2021

The state recorded 37,275 home sales in August, slightly above the recent average for the month.


Home Prices Update: August 2021 September 23, 2021

California home prices are up 21.7 percent over 12 months, although the rate of growth slowed in August.


August 2021 State Tax Collections September 20, 2021

Through the first two months of the 2021-22 fiscal year, collections from the state’s three largest taxes are running 20 percent ($3.6 billion) ahead of budget projections. 


2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: September 2021 September 20, 2021

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a strong chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the budget act assumption of $170 billion in 2021-22. 


What Do Unanticipated Revenues Mean for the Surplus? September 20, 2021

New, unanticipated state revenues do not result in a dollar-for-dollar increase in the state’s surplus. Instead, on average, and additional $1 of unanticipated revenues can result in about $0.40 of additional surplus, as a result of the state’s constitutional requirements to allocate revenues to specific uses. 


A New Method For Current Year Revenue Forecasting September 20, 2021

We discuss our new model which provides a monthly update of our forecast of current year collections from the state’s “big three” taxes. 


August 2021 Jobs Report September 17, 2021

California employers added 104,300 net new jobs in August, a strong showing despite the national slowdown.


U.S. Retail Sales Update: August 2021 September 17, 2021

U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 0.7 percent from July to August. Retail sales remain elevated due to dramatic growth in January and March.