California income tax collections were down 2 percent in June relative to last year.
California businesses added 42,900 net jobs in May (seasonally adjusted), about the same as April and another month of slower job growth than seen in the past year.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) declined 0.3 percent from April to May. Inflation-adjusted sales declined more.
Preliminary cannabis tax revenue for 3rd quarter of 2021-22: $189 million.
California employers added 41,400 net jobs in April (seasonally adjusted), the smallest net gain in the past six months.
We discuss our May revenue outlook.
California employers added 60,200 jobs net jobs March (seasonally-adjusted), a 4.2 percent increase on an annual basis.
Our estimates suggest that it is virtually certain that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—will significantly exceed the Governor’s Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22. Currently, our best estimate is that there will be somewhere between $33 billion and $39 billion in unanticipated revenue.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 0.5 percent from February to March.
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a very good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars.
February 2022 business formation data shows that new business creation is retuning to long-term average levels after growing at a faster pace in late 2020 and throughout 2021.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 0.3 percent from January to February. Retail sales have been elevated after growing dramatically in early 2021, but inflation has offset much of the past year’s apparent “growth.”
Preliminary cannabis tax revenue for 2nd quarter of 2021-22: $196 million. Over the past year, cannabis tax revenue has grown much more slowly than it did previously.
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a very good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 3.8 percent from December to January. Retail sales have been elevated after growing dramatically in early 2021, but inflation has offset most of the past year’s apparent “growth.”