Did California Enter a Recession Last Fall? October 3, 2023
While recessions are not formally defined for state economies, economic data for the fourth quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023 appear consistent with California experiencing a mild recession. The apparent start of a recession in California last fall helps explain why the state faced a revenue shortfall in its most recent budget. How much the economy will continue to dampen the state's fiscal picture moving forward is unclear. However, the threat that the recent slowdown could persist will be a significant risk for the foreseeable future.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: August 2023 September 14, 2023
U.S. retail sales have grown 1.2 percent over the last 3 months and 2.5 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.
Cannabis Tax Revenue Update August 30, 2023
The 2023-24 budget package anticipated a funding shortfall for programs supported by cannabis tax revenues. Our new revenue estimates are higher, yielding a smaller funding shortfall.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: June 2023 July 18, 2023
U.S. retail sales have grown 1.1 percent over the last 3 months and 1.5 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: May 2023 June 15, 2023
U.S. retail sales have been roughly flat (0.2 percent decline) over the last 3 months and grown 1.6 percent over the last 12 months.
Cannabis Tax Revenue Update: May 2023 May 23, 2023
The May Revision anticipates a funding shortfall for programs supported by cannabis tax revenues. Our new revenue estimates are slightly higher, yielding a slightly smaller funding shortfall. Specifically, our estimate for 2022-23 cannabis retail excise tax revenue is $509 million. This is $24 million above the administration’s May Revision estimate but $133 million below the January Governor’s Budget estimate.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: April 2023 May 16, 2023
U.S. retail sales have dropped 0.9 percent over the last 3 months and grown 1.6 percent over the last 12 months.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: March 2023 April 14, 2023
U.S. retail sales have grown 1.9 percent over the last 3 months and 2.9 percent over the last 12 months. Sales have grown faster than inflation over the last 3 months but slower than inflation over the last 12.
Updated 2022-23 "Big Three" Revenue Outlook March 15, 2023
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently estimate that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—are likely to fall below the Governor's Budget assumption of $200 billion in 2022-23.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: February 2023 March 15, 2023
U.S. retail sales have grown 2 percent over the last 3 months and 5.4 percent over the last 12 months.
An Update on California Competes March 10, 2023
We look at recent program statistics and research on California Competes.
Cannabis Tax Revenue Update February 22, 2023
Revenue from the cannabis retail excise tax has declined for six straight quarters.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: January 2023 February 15, 2023
U.S. retail sales have grown 6.4 percent over the last 12 months, but have been flat after accounting for inflation.
Updated Inflation Outlook January 22, 2023
Based on the most recent economic data, we now estimate that annual inflation will drop to about 4 percent by the second quarter of 2023.