What Do Unanticipated Revenues Mean for the Surplus? September 20, 2021

New, unanticipated state revenues do not result in a dollar-for-dollar increase in the state’s surplus. Instead, on average, and additional $1 of unanticipated revenues can result in about $0.40 of additional surplus, as a result of the state’s constitutional requirements to allocate revenues to specific uses. 


A New Method For Current Year Revenue Forecasting September 20, 2021

We discuss our new model which provides a monthly update of our forecast of current year collections from the state’s “big three” taxes. 


August 2021 Jobs Report September 17, 2021

California employers added 104,300 net new jobs in August, a strong showing despite the national slowdown.


U.S. Retail Sales Update: August 2021 September 17, 2021

U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 0.7 percent from July to August. Retail sales remain elevated due to dramatic growth in January and March. 


Building Permits Update: July 2021 September 7, 2021

California builders recorded 9,676 permits in July, 5 percent above the same month in 2020.


Income Tax Withholding Tracker: August 1 - August 27 September 7, 2021

California income tax withholding remained very strong in August, coming in nearly 20 percent above August 2020.


Exploring Recent Trends in California Births August 30, 2021

In 2020, CA births dropped 6%, the biggest one-year decline since 1972. This post offers some observations on this trend. 


August 2021 Cap-and-Trade Auction Update August 26, 2021

August 2021 auction generates over $1.1 billion in state revenue.


Home Sales Update: July 2021 August 25, 2021

The pace of home sales in California continued to moderate in July, with 38,389 sales recorded.


Home Prices Update: July 2021 August 25, 2021

California home prices continued to soar in July and are now up 21.2 percent over the past 12 months.


Cannabis Tax Revenue Update August 23, 2021

Preliminary tally of 2020-21 cannabis tax revenue: $817 million.


July 2021 Jobs Report August 20, 2021

California employers created an estimated 114,400 net jobs in July, the biggest gain since February.


How Long Do Firms Take from Founding to IPO? August 18, 2021

It's most common for a larger firm to go public 8 to 10 years from its founding date.


U.S. Retail Sales Update: July 2021 August 17, 2021

U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) fell 1.1 percent from June to July. Retail sales remain elevated due to dramatic growth in January and March. 


California New Business Creation: July 2021 August 9, 2021

New business creation slowed in July, but still remained above the typical level for the month.