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Income Tax Withholding Tracker March 7, 2025
Income tax withholding in February came in $887 million (11 percent) higher the recent projections included in the 2025-26 Governor's Budget. February marks the second straight month where withholding receipts exceeded budget projections by more than 10 percent. The recent trend in withholding appears to represent an uptick in growth compared to the generally strong period last summer. Winter withholding has been running about 10 percent higher than the prior year, whereas the summer period was consistently in the 5 percent to 6 percent growth range.
Cannabis Tax Revenue Update (2024 Q4) March 6, 2025
Our new cannabis tax revenue estimates are very similar to the revenues anticipated by the Governor's Budget.
Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update February 21, 2025
In the first half of 2024-25, preliminary revenue for the firearms and ammunition excise tax was $29 million.
Updated "Big Three" Revenue Outlook February 20, 2025
Upside to Governor's Budget Revenues. Driven by the stock market, recent income tax collections have been decidedly strong. Reflecting this trend, our revenue outlook continues to improve and now suggests there is upside potential relative to the revenues assumed in the Governor’s Budget. Whether or not the stock market surge underpinning these revenue gains is sustainable is impossible to say, but several hallmarks of prior unsustainable stock market booms appear present today.
Five Guidelines for Using Revenue Forecasts February 20, 2025
As part of building the state budget each year, the Legislature and Governor must make an assumption about how much revenue the state will collect. Because no one knows how much revenue the state will collect next year, leaders must rely on revenue forecasts. Both our office and the Department of Finance (DOF) provide periodic revenue forecasts that can be used for this purpose. These forecasts use the best available data to provide informed estimates of future revenue collections. Although they have limitations, they are important to the state budget process because they offer an objective foundation on which the budget can be built. In this post, we offer guidelines to help make the best use of these revenue forecasts—that is, to help them focus on the right questions, avoid overreactions, and be better positioned for the unexpected.
Cannabis Tax Revenue Update (2024 Q3) December 3, 2024
Our new forecast for 2024-25 cannabis tax revenue is $653 million, somewhat lower than the May Revision forecast of $695 million.
Cannabis Tax Revenue Update (2024 Q2) September 4, 2024
Our new cannabis tax revenue estimates are similar to the revenues anticipated by the 2024-25 budget package.
Cannabis Tax Revenue Update May 31, 2024
Our new forecast for 2023-24 cannabis excise tax revenue is $649 million, slightly below the May Revision forecast of $665 million.
Cannabis Tax Revenue Update: February 2024 February 27, 2024
Our new forecast for 2023-24 cannabis retail excise tax revenue is $675 million, very close to the January Governor’s Budget forecast of $660 million.
Recent Revenues Coming in Below Governor's Budget Projections January 22, 2024
In the first few weeks of January, real-time personal income tax (PIT) revenue collections are running $3 billion to $4 billion short of the January target for current year revenue projections included in the 2024-25 Governor's Budget.
Cannabis Tax Revenue Update: November 2023 November 30, 2023
Our new forecast for 2023-24 cannabis retail excise tax revenue: $702 million. This is $206 million above the budget package assumption.
Cannabis Tax Revenue Update August 30, 2023
The 2023-24 budget package anticipated a funding shortfall for programs supported by cannabis tax revenues. Our new revenue estimates are higher, yielding a smaller funding shortfall.
Cannabis Tax Revenue Update: May 2023 May 23, 2023
The May Revision anticipates a funding shortfall for programs supported by cannabis tax revenues. Our new revenue estimates are slightly higher, yielding a slightly smaller funding shortfall. Specifically, our estimate for 2022-23 cannabis retail excise tax revenue is $509 million. This is $24 million above the administration’s May Revision estimate but $133 million below the January Governor’s Budget estimate.
Updated 2022-23 "Big Three" Revenue Outlook March 15, 2023
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently estimate that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—are likely to fall below the Governor's Budget assumption of $200 billion in 2022-23.