New IRS data on taxpayer migration during the first year of the pandemic shows an uptick of movement between California and other states, as well as within California.
California income tax withholding collections were $90 million (1 percent) lower in July compared to last year.
California businesses added 19,900 jobs in June, about half as much as recent months and the slowest gain since last September.
The amount of money spent on retail purchases in the U.S. increased 1% from May to June, but real sales declined due to inflation.
California income tax collections were down 2 percent in June relative to last year.
California businesses added 42,900 net jobs in May (seasonally adjusted), about the same as April and another month of slower job growth than seen in the past year.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) declined 0.3 percent from April to May. Inflation-adjusted sales declined more.
Preliminary cannabis tax revenue for 3rd quarter of 2021-22: $189 million.
California employers added 41,400 net jobs in April (seasonally adjusted), the smallest net gain in the past six months.
California employers added 60,200 jobs net jobs March (seasonally-adjusted), a 4.2 percent increase on an annual basis.
Our estimates suggest that it is virtually certain that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—will significantly exceed the Governor’s Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22. Currently, our best estimate is that there will be somewhere between $33 billion and $39 billion in unanticipated revenue.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 0.5 percent from February to March.
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a very good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars.
February 2022 business formation data shows that new business creation is retuning to long-term average levels after growing at a faster pace in late 2020 and throughout 2021.