Credit/debit card data suggest CA taxable sales grew by 2% in January but the spending response to recent federal stimulus payments seemed to be weaker in CA than elsewhere.
Revenue collections through January have been well ahead of projections in the recently released 2021-22 Governor’s Budget. After accounting for changes in constitutionally-required spending, we estimate that these higher-than-expected collections represent a roughly $4 billion increase in discretionary state funding relative to the Governor’s Budget.
December revenue collections from the state’s three largest taxes were ahead of Governor’s Budget projections by $3.0 billion (21 percent).
U.S. retail sales declined by 0.7% from November to December, but sales for the full year were 0.4% higher than 2019.
Credit/debit card data suggest CA taxable sales dropped by 2% in December but remained higher than January 2020.
November revenue collections from the state’s three largest taxes were ahead of budget projections by $2.4 billion (33 percent).
Credit/debit card data suggest CA taxable sales continued to grow in November; spending now higher than January.
U.S. retail sales declined by 1% in November, but total sales Jan.-Nov. 2020 were slightly higher than Jan.-Nov. 2019.
We discuss the main revenue forecast in our 2021-21 Fiscal Outlook.
U.S. retail sales grew modestly in October. Total sales January-October 2020 were just 0.1% below January-October 2019.
October revenue collections from the state’s three largest taxes were ahead of budget projections by $2.8 billion (40 percent).
Credit/debit card data suggest CA taxable sales continued to grow in October but still remained slightly below January.
September collections from the state’s three largest taxes were ahead of budget projections by $4 billion (42 percent).
Credit/debit card data suggest California taxable sales continued to grow in September but still remained somewhat below January.
New vehicle registrations have rebounded from record lows in the spring, but remain below pre-recession levels.