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The 2022-23 Budget: May Revenue Outlook May 16, 2022
We discuss our May revenue outlook.
2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: April 20, 2022 April 21, 2022
Our estimates suggest that it is virtually certain that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—will significantly exceed the Governor’s Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22. Currently, our best estimate is that there will be somewhere between $33 billion and $39 billion in unanticipated revenue.
2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: March 2022 March 28, 2022
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a very good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars.
Cannabis Tax Revenue Update February 23, 2022
Preliminary cannabis tax revenue for 2nd quarter of 2021-22: $196 million. Over the past year, cannabis tax revenue has grown much more slowly than it did previously.
2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: February 2022 February 17, 2022
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a very good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars.
2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: January 2022 January 21, 2022
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a strong chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22.
Income Tax Withholding Tracker: November 1 - November 30 November 30, 2021
California income tax withholding collections in November were up nearly a third over last November.
Cannabis Tax Revenue Update November 30, 2021
Preliminary cannabis tax revenue for 1st quarter of 2021-22: $211 million.
Income Tax Withholding Tracker: October 1 - October 31 November 3, 2021
California income tax withholding in October was up 8.2 percent over October 2020, a slower growth rate than in the three previous months.
2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: October 2021 October 22, 2021
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the budget act assumption of $170 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars.
Income Tax Withholding Tracker: September 1 - September 24 September 24, 2021
The California income tax withholding surge continues, as September collections to date are 23.5 percent above last September.
August 2021 State Tax Collections September 20, 2021
Through the first two months of the 2021-22 fiscal year, collections from the state’s three largest taxes are running 20 percent ($3.6 billion) ahead of budget projections.
2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: September 2021 September 20, 2021
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a strong chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the budget act assumption of $170 billion in 2021-22.
A New Method For Current Year Revenue Forecasting September 20, 2021
We discuss our new model which provides a monthly update of our forecast of current year collections from the state’s “big three” taxes.
Income Tax Withholding Tracker: August 1 - August 27 September 7, 2021
California income tax withholding remained very strong in August, coming in nearly 20 percent above August 2020.