We discuss our May revenue outlook.
Our estimates suggest that it is virtually certain that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—will significantly exceed the Governor’s Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22. Currently, our best estimate is that there will be somewhere between $33 billion and $39 billion in unanticipated revenue.
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a very good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars.
Preliminary cannabis tax revenue for 2nd quarter of 2021-22: $196 million. Over the past year, cannabis tax revenue has grown much more slowly than it did previously.
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a very good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars.
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a strong chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22.
California income tax withholding collections in November were up nearly a third over last November.
Preliminary cannabis tax revenue for 1st quarter of 2021-22: $211 million.
California income tax withholding in October was up 8.2 percent over October 2020, a slower growth rate than in the three previous months.
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the budget act assumption of $170 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars.
The California income tax withholding surge continues, as September collections to date are 23.5 percent above last September.
Through the first two months of the 2021-22 fiscal year, collections from the state’s three largest taxes are running 20 percent ($3.6 billion) ahead of budget projections.
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a strong chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the budget act assumption of $170 billion in 2021-22.
We discuss our new model which provides a monthly update of our forecast of current year collections from the state’s “big three” taxes.
California income tax withholding remained very strong in August, coming in nearly 20 percent above August 2020.